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National steel consumption 20 years down the first drop japanese free videos

作者:钢材信息网 来源: 日期:2015-12-15 17:35:28 人气:0 评论:0 标签:钢材 钢材信息网

  Steel prices below the cost price of small  (japanese free videos)  and medium-sized (japanese free videos) steel enterprises or could not escape the fate of bankruptcy

  Recently, the Institute of Metallurgy Industry (japanese free videos) Research Institute released called 2016 China's steel demand forecasting results show that in 2015 China's actual consumption of steel is 6.68 tons, down 4.8%, which is the first decline in 20 years. In addition, is expected in 2030 China's steel demand (japanese free videos) will be reduced to 4.9 tons, steel output will depend on steel exports, and this year the annual steel export volume may be close to 1.1 tons, the future may remain high, but not high growth.

  Some steel prices plummeted nearly 70%(japanese free videos)

  According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring, steel prices last week fell by 1.2%, of which the high speed wire, rebar prices fell by 1.6% and 1.4%. Www steel analyst Liu Xinwei said, steel prices continued to decline in the trend, has fallen below the cost price. Since this year, steel prices fell by 23%~42%. Compared with the highest level in 2011, the highest price of steel is 5230 yuan, now 1650 yuan / ton, (japanese free videos) down 68%.

  "The decline in the consumption of steel, the main reason is the rigid demand for steel market decline caused by." Www steel analyst Bi Hongbing told reporters, (japanese free videos) the development of the domestic economic situation and the major downstream industries weaker than expected, resulting in steel consumption in 2015 inflection point down, down 4.8%, but also for the first time in 20 years fell.

  From a specific point of view of the downstream industry, 1~10 month construction industry growth is lower than expected, the machinery industry increased by 4 percentage points lower than expected; auto output growth is lower than expected 6 percentage points.

  Small and medium-sized (japanese free videos) steel enterprises or could not escape the fate of bankruptcy

  According to HSBC's data, this year China has shut down 50 million tons of steel production capacity, accounting for only 11.4 of its total capacity of 4% tons. According to the bank's calculations, China needs to cut the next year to 1.2 tons to 1.6 tons of capacity, in order to make the whole industry capacity utilization rate of 80% this relatively healthy level.

  Liu Xinwei said the steel industry average profit rate is -1.2%. In the first 10 months of this year, the national large and medium iron and steel enterprises in the loss of nearly 50%.

  Zhuo Hu Xuefei believes that the domestic part of the small and medium sized steel enterprises to escape the fate of bankruptcy. Shutting down the tide may make the domestic (japanese free videos) steel production has declined in short time, but the effect is not obvious, the production of large steel enterprises is not obvious, the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry for nearly two or three years, the contradiction between supply and demand will remain in a very long time.

  Forecast next year or continue to decline

  "Next year is expected to continue to lower the price of steel or below this year." Liu Xinwei said that next year may have improved mechanical aspects, pull demand. But next year, the price of steel is mainly in search of real estate, if the real estate operating rate fell, (japanese free videos) prices will fall below this year's lows. If the real estate demand is released, it is possible to maintain the trend of low price shocks.

  Bi Hongbing said that in 2016 there are still many opportunities for the steel industry, such as the whole industry structure adjustment, product upgrades, along the way and the planning of 2025, etc..

  (japanese free videos) Next year, the steel industry is mainly to be the performance of the two industries, one is the shipbuilding industry, the two is the automotive industry. On the one hand, the monthly shipbuilding indicators continue to rise, on the other hand due to the implementation of new energy vehicles, the implementation of the new energy vehicles, small displacement car tax cuts are good for the rigid demand for cars. (Guangzhou daily)

翻译:

  钢材价格跌破成本价中小钢企或难逃破产命运

  日前,冶金工业研究院对外发布名为《2016年我国钢铁需求预测成果》的报告显示,预计2015年我国钢材实际消费量为6.68亿吨,同比下降4.8%,这也是20年来的首度下滑。另外,预计2030年中国的钢铁需求将降至4.9亿吨,钢铁产量还将取决于钢铁出口量,而今年全年钢材出口量可能接近1.1亿吨,未来出口可能维持高位,但不会再高速增长。

  部分钢材价格暴跌近七成

  据商务部监测,上周钢材价格下降1.2%,其中高速线材、螺纹钢价格分别下降1.6%和1.4%。卓创资讯钢铁分析师刘新伟介绍称,钢铁价格处于持续下跌态势,已跌破成本价。今年以来钢材价格跌幅在23%~42%。与2011年最高位相比,螺纹钢最高价是5230元,现在1650元/吨,跌去了68%。

  “这次钢材消费量下降,主因还是钢材市场的刚性需求出现下滑所致。”卓创资讯钢铁分析师毕红兵告诉记者,国内经济形势和主要下游行业发展弱于预期,导致2015年钢材消费量出现拐点下行,同比下降4.8%,也是20年来首次下降。

  从具体的下游行业来看,1~10月份建筑行业增速低于预期,机械工业增加值比预期低4个百分点;汽车产量增速比预期低6个百分点。

  中小钢企或难逃破产命运

  根据汇丰银行的数据,今年中国已关停5000万吨炼钢产能,只占其总计11.4亿吨产能的4%。根据该行计算,中国明年需要再削减1.2亿吨至1.6亿吨产能,才能令全行业产能利用率达到80%这个“相对健康”的水平。

  刘新伟说,钢铁行业平均利润率是-1.2%。今年前10个月,全国大中型钢铁企业亏损面接近50%。

  卓创资讯胡雪飞认为,国内部分中小型钢企难逃破产的命运。关停潮下或许会让国内钢铁产量短时内有所下降,但大型钢企的减产效果并不明显,钢铁行业产能过剩的问题近两三年难以缓解,供需矛盾在很长一段时间内仍会存在。

  预测明年或继续走低

  “预计明年钢铁价格会继续低位震荡或跌破今年低位。”刘新伟表示,明年机械方面可能会有好转,拉动需求。但明年钢铁价格主要是看房地产,如果房地产开工率下降,价格将会跌破今年的低点。如果房地产需求有所释放,则可能维持低位价格震荡的走势。

  毕红兵则表示,2016年钢铁行业依然有很多机遇存在,例如全行业结构调整、产品升级、一带一路和2025年规划等。

  明年钢铁主要有待两个行业的表现,一是造船行业,二是汽车行业。一方面月度造船指标持续回升,另一方面由于新能源汽车各项落地政策的实施,小排量汽车减税等都对于汽车的刚性需求有利好影响。(广州日报)

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