Steel prices below the cost price of small (japanese free videos) and medium-sized (japanese free videos) steel enterprises or could not escape the fate of bankruptcy
Recently, the Institute of Metallurgy Industry (japanese free videos) Research Institute released called 2016 China's steel demand forecasting results show that in 2015 China's actual consumption of steel is 6.68 tons, down 4.8%, which is the first decline in 20 years. In addition, is expected in 2030 China's steel demand (japanese free videos) will be reduced to 4.9 tons, steel output will depend on steel exports, and this year the annual steel export volume may be close to 1.1 tons, the future may remain high, but not high growth.
Some steel prices plummeted nearly 70%(japanese free videos)
According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring, steel prices last week fell by 1.2%, of which the high speed wire, rebar prices fell by 1.6% and 1.4%. Www steel analyst Liu Xinwei said, steel prices continued to decline in the trend, has fallen below the cost price. Since this year, steel prices fell by 23%~42%. Compared with the highest level in 2011, the highest price of steel is 5230 yuan, now 1650 yuan / ton, (japanese free videos) down 68%.
"The decline in the consumption of steel, the main reason is the rigid demand for steel market decline caused by." Www steel analyst Bi Hongbing told reporters, (japanese free videos) the development of the domestic economic situation and the major downstream industries weaker than expected, resulting in steel consumption in 2015 inflection point down, down 4.8%, but also for the first time in 20 years fell.
From a specific point of view of the downstream industry, 1~10 month construction industry growth is lower than expected, the machinery industry increased by 4 percentage points lower than expected; auto output growth is lower than expected 6 percentage points.
Small and medium-sized (japanese free videos) steel enterprises or could not escape the fate of bankruptcy
According to HSBC's data, this year China has shut down 50 million tons of steel production capacity, accounting for only 11.4 of its total capacity of 4% tons. According to the bank's calculations, China needs to cut the next year to 1.2 tons to 1.6 tons of capacity, in order to make the whole industry capacity utilization rate of 80% this relatively healthy level.
Liu Xinwei said the steel industry average profit rate is -1.2%. In the first 10 months of this year, the national large and medium iron and steel enterprises in the loss of nearly 50%.
Zhuo Hu Xuefei believes that the domestic part of the small and medium sized steel enterprises to escape the fate of bankruptcy. Shutting down the tide may make the domestic (japanese free videos) steel production has declined in short time, but the effect is not obvious, the production of large steel enterprises is not obvious, the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry for nearly two or three years, the contradiction between supply and demand will remain in a very long time.
Forecast next year or continue to decline
"Next year is expected to continue to lower the price of steel or below this year." Liu Xinwei said that next year may have improved mechanical aspects, pull demand. But next year, the price of steel is mainly in search of real estate, if the real estate operating rate fell, (japanese free videos) prices will fall below this year's lows. If the real estate demand is released, it is possible to maintain the trend of low price shocks.
Bi Hongbing said that in 2016 there are still many opportunities for the steel industry, such as the whole industry structure adjustment, product upgrades, along the way and the planning of 2025, etc..
(japanese free videos) Next year, the steel industry is mainly to be the performance of the two industries, one is the shipbuilding industry, the two is the automotive industry. On the one hand, the monthly shipbuilding indicators continue to rise, on the other hand due to the implementation of new energy vehicles, the implementation of the new energy vehicles, small displacement car tax cuts are good for the rigid demand for cars. (Guangzhou daily)